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The next 10 years the cost of batteries will be significantly reduced Feb 23, 2018

 In the next 10 years, there will be a substantial drop in battery costs, which will result in a significant increase in the share of electrified powertrains in major automobile markets.


    The above conclusion comes from a recent market study by Roland Berger International Management Consulting Firm titled "Powertrain 2020 - Lithium Ion - Next Bubble?"


    The next 5 to 7 years will be large-scale mergers


    "Lithium-ion battery manufacturers are now highly sought after, but large-scale mergers are expected to occur in the next five to seven years." Roland Berger, Managing Partner, International Management Consulting, Alternative Energy Power Systems Technologist Wolfgang Dr.Wolfgang Bernhart said. Most experts believe that in the next 10 years, due to the substantial decline in battery costs, electrified powertrain in the major car market share will increase significantly. According to a bold prediction, by 2015, there will be no more than 1.2 million plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles in major regions. Demand for lithium-ion batteries for hybrid HEVs / plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles will reach 820,000 "equivalent EVs", while in 2015 the installed capacity will exceed 2.6 million EVs. The demand for lithium-ion batteries will continue to rise by 2020, but the equivalent of 3 million electric cars as early as 2018 to reach.


    2014 ~ 2017 overcapacity


    According to experts, according to announced investment projects, the overcapacity in the future will be hard to avoid. This is especially notable in the United States and Japan. 2015 battery production will reach 200% of projected 2016 demand. In addition, not including the investment projects have not yet been announced; some major companies have not announced the investment projects, which will further exacerbate the overcapacity. State subsidies, on the other hand, will stimulate more investment. Most investments in developing countries are concentrated in battery manufacturing and not in core materials such as R & D. And the corresponding, truly able to fully meet the technical needs of vehicle manufacturers, with qualified and large-scale production capacity, lower cost battery suppliers, in fact, is still very scarce.


    Experts predict: "Low-end manufacturing capacity to repeat the building, lack of core R & D manufacturing technology, imitation, replication is the current status of the battery industry in these countries now."


    Only a few producers can survive


    Spot checks also showed that in the next 5 to 7 years, only 6 to 8 global battery manufacturers to survive. Related experts said: "The threshold of 2015 revenue is about 600 million euros. "Therefore, Western governments need immediate action to prevent the loss of future technology to Asia.


    At the same time, battery suppliers need to develop a clear strategy to quickly gain market share in order to survive. The last point is very important, that investors should be aware of the huge investment risk. As the experts put it: "There are more and more negative factors, but if properly managed, the future electrified powertrain will continue to benefit greatly."